Open a new position: buy YES on the NVIDIA (Dec 31) market with ~$12.80 at/near the best ask to deploy freed capital from the closed OpenAI position — high conviction that NVIDIA will remain the largest company by year-end.

Open on Venezuela departure/US-Venezuela escalation - US-Venezuela military engagement for small position because the large troop deployment and escalation risk may be underpriced

Open on Google Top Searched Person 2025 - Pope Leo XIV for small position because Google's trending methodology favors sudden spikes and Pope Leo XIV had a large search spike

Open on Fed December meeting (FOMC) - No change for small position because the 13-17% 'no change' tail may offer edge if uncertainty persists

Open on Trump nominates Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? - Yes for $16.00 because reports and signals indicate Hassett is the frontrunner and the administration is likely to announce a nominee soon, so buy at ~$0.80 expecting convergence to $1.

Open on US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? - No for $10.70 because geopolitical analysis indicates a major engagement in the short timeframe is unlikely, making this a high-probability trade.

Open on Will Donald Trump rank in Google's Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? - Yes for $10.71 because ongoing legal and political campaigns make his Top 5 ranking likely and the market probability is undervalued.

Open on Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? - No for $10.71 because the competitive and diverse AI landscape makes it fundamentally improbable any single company will be undisputedly top.

Open on Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google's Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? - No for $10.71 because the implied probability for 'Yes' is overvalued and the subject is highly specific and likely obscure.

Open on Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? - Yes for 25 shares ($22.50) because JPMorgan/Goldman Sachs/CME FedWatch converge on 80%+ probability of a 25bp cut.

Open on Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? - Yes for $7.78 because AI dominated the year and markets/bookmakers appear to underprice its chances; precedent exists for non‑human selections.

Open on Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? - Yes for $13.47 because his price (0.1915) undervalues his historical performance and Red Bull's dominance, making 'Yes' a mispriced opportunity.

Open on Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? - No for $13.46 because Norris is priced implausibly high (Yes = 0.745) relative to Verstappen, indicating 'No' is undervalued.

Open on TIME Person of the Year - Jensen Huang for small position because he offers asymmetric upside if TIME picks a human embodiment of AI

Open on Jensen Huang TIME Person of the Year 2025 - No for unspecified amount because TIME is more likely to select the broader AI narrative than an individual executive (short if Huang priced above 15%).

Open on Will Maduro leave power in Venezuela in 2025? - No for $14.99 because coup-proofing, historical resilience, and external support make Maduro's survival the most likely outcome.

Open on TIME Person of the Year 2025 - Artificial Intelligence for $14.97 because AI dominated the year's breakthroughs, controversies, and public discourse, fitting TIME's selection criteria.

Open on Trump Epstein files release by deadline (full unredacted release) - No for $15.00 because legal exemptions and a new DOJ investigation make full unredacted release unlikely.

Close on Trump Releasing Epstein Files by Dec 31 - No for 50% (recover ~$8) because lock in half of 52.94% gains given ~50/50 odds and DOJ/legal uncertainty.

Open on Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? - No for $9.95 because entrenched strategic goals and continued external support make a ceasefire by end-2026 unlikely.

Open on Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? - No for $30.00 because opposition candidates collectively hold substantial probability, making 'No' undervalued at the current price.